The clock struck midnight Saturday afternoon in Minneapolis
for the Ohio State men’s basketball team. A possible ticket to the big dance
turned into a giant dosey-doe for Minnesota in “The
Barn.”
Ohio State (17-12) had Cinderella’s slipper stolen by the
Golden Gophers at “Senior Night” in Williams Arena. Instead, the Buckeyes’
carriage turned into a pumpkin, just in time for a trip to the N.I.T. barring
an unforeseen turn of events or a Big Ten Tournament Championship run by Ohio
State.
For possibly the first time in history, perhaps both the
NCAA Champions and defending runners-up could fail to earn a bid into the NCAA
Tournament the following season. Florida, young and inexperienced much like
Ohio State, has limped down the stretch, going 6-6 in their last 12 games. The
Gators have just three top-100 wins in the RPI and none on the road.
But unlike Florida, Ohio State head coach Thad Matta has a dilemma on his hands.
The Gators are primed for a bounce-back season next year,
even if they get left out of the 2008 NCAA Tournament. Florida is expecting to
return 100 percent of the scoring and rebounding from this season for 2008-09.
On the other hand, the Buckeyes will need to replace 23.6 points and 9.8
rebounds per game from seniors Jamar Butler and
Othello Hunter, and face the prospect of losing 7-1 freshman Kosta Koufos, and his 13.9 points
and 7.1 rebounds per game, early to the NBA draft.
And that’s become a disturbing trend for Ohio State.
Columbus is quickly becoming a feeding ground for NBA
prospects. More aptly, it’s almost like a commuter school, simply a vehicle to
get to the next level.
Certainly Matta embraces kids’
dreams of making it to the professional ranks. Even further, he’s said he will
not recruit a kid that doesn’t want to go to Ohio State to win, work hard and
study hard. But the program can’t thrive on one-year wonders.
History has already been made for Ohio State, placing, for
the first time in history, three freshmen in the first round of the NBA draft
in one season. Losing No. 1-pick Greg Oden, and to a
lesser extent, enigmatic Daequan Cook after one
collegiate campaigns were not surprising, but Matta
was caught off-guard by the sudden departure of eventual No. 4-pick Mike Conley
Jr.
And now, it’s a real possibility, if not probability, Koufos will become the fourth freshman in two seasons to
make that same leap.
The McDonald’s All-American turned down a $5 million
contract to play in his family’s native Greece late this summer, spurning his
mother’s homeland and the corresponding fortune for a chance to play for the
Buckeyes. But despite possibly playing his way out of the NBA lottery, should
he declare this season, Koufos may wind up making the
jump.
And that’s a problem.
Next season, Ohio State will again have unanswered
questions. The Buckeyes will be relying on two freshmen point guards, one
coming off a second major knee surgery, to man the lead role. And the dreams of
seeing 7-footers Koufos, and incoming McDonald’s
All-American B.J. Mullens playing alongside one
another would be crushed if Koufos elects to depart,
again leaving Ohio State in a bind, lacking a true power forward.
The news gets worse.
If Mullens plays anything like
expectations for the No. 6-overall player in the nation by ScoutHoops.com, don’t
expect Mullens to stay longer than one season. And
6-7 high school sophomore Deshaun
Thomas, arguably the top prep star in his class from Ft. Wayne, Ind. – don’t
count on him staying in Columbus more than a year or two, if he ever arrives.
If not for last year’s trip to the Final Four, one could
almost sympathize with the recruiting philosophies of terminated coach Jim O’Brien.
The grumpy ex-Ohio State basketball coach, much like
Wisconsin’s Bo Ryan, fretted to recruit players that would quickly bolt for the
NBA, creating a revolving door in his program. It’s the kind of continuity
problem that’s plagued Michigan State and other top programs.
Perhaps O’Brien’s biggest problem wasn’t the mentality, but
how it was portrayed.
(Paraphrasing)”If you want Final Four appearances every
year, go to North Carolina,” O’Brien once quipped.
In reality, college basketball championships are won with
talent. So while O’Brien’s teams may have contended for Big Ten Titles fairly
regularly, they weren’t equipped for long, successful runs in March.
By contrast, Matta has quickly
loaded his cupboard for the near future. But recruiting success comes with a
price, as Ohio State fans are quickly learning.
And now, they’re getting what they wished for.
The instability and lack of depth from the sudden departures
left the Buckeyes vulnerable this season and will continue to do so if this
trend continues. No program can survive with a steady stream of one-year
players unless almost every one of them live up to the billing almost every
second they suit up.
So far, Conley and Oden lived up
to the hype, but Cook and Koufos would go down as
solid players, especially given they were only freshmen, but only showed
flashes and never consistency.
Another drawback of Matta’s
tremendous recruiting is that these early departures backfire against the NCAA
Academic Progress Report. The report, APR for short, counts each scholarship
athlete enrolled for each semester (or quarter). Two points are given, one for
staying eligible and another for returning to school the next term, for each
player.
Adding up the total number of points possible and dividing
by the actual number of points, the percentage is multiplied by 100, giving the
school their APR score. Schools must maintain an 825 to avoid possible
punishments from the NCAA, which could include a loss in up to three
scholarships.
It’s not as if recruiting successful players will
automatically translate into one-and-done. North Carolina lost Brandon Wright
after just one season, but sophomores Tywon Lawson
and Wayne Ellington, as well as junior Tyler Hansbrough
all returned to Chapel Hill to make a run at a National Championship. At Kansas,
Brandon Rush, thought to be a one-and-done, is in his third-year while Darrell Arthur also spurned the NBA for a second season in Lawrence.
Ironically, if Koufos says goodbye
to Ohio State at season’s end, he will be the third such player to do so
against favorable circumstances. Three such kids were good students that love
class. And for that matter, three families were not in distress financially.
But still, you can understand kids leaving if they’re being guaranteed a top-10
pick, as Conley and Oden were.
Koufos, on the other hand, might
not be so fortunate.
Should he leave, Koufos may not
even be guaranteed a top-20 or top-25 position. He could make himself,
potentially, millions more by returning for one more season, improving many
flaws exposed in his game this year and in the process, possibly helping Ohio
State compete for a Big Ten Championship (or more).
In the slim chance Ohio State returns, for a third
consecutive season, to the NCAA Tournament, maybe they can make the most of the
remaining games they have left with Koufos. Or, maybe
Koufos returns for another season. And in a perfect
world, maybe the Buckeyes will find the slipper fits and the 7-footer plays his sophomore year in Columbus.
Regardless, this issue won’t go away. Matta
will have to find a delicate balance between his tireless work on the
recruiting trail and keeping together a core of players long enough to matter.
Otherwise, the dancing may be short-lived.