For the optimist, here are ten reasons the Ohio State Buckeyes WILL win the national title in 2006.

The Kicking Game

‘Chicken Little, Chicken Little, the sky is falling, the sky is falling!’ Such are the words of a fictional tale (turned into a movie) of barnyard animals. Yet as far removed from the barnyard as most people are, one could argue these sentiments have been echoed with the Ohio State kicking game.

Andy Groom proved to be a vital cog in the national title run of 2002. Stepping up as a former walk-on, he won the job during 2001 and never relinquished it. His kicks routinely bailed out poor offensive drives or woeful field position. His punt at Wisconsin remains perhaps the greatest I have witnessed; the entire stadium went from cheering to groaning as he nailed a 74 yarder to change the face of the contest. An All American after his final season in 2002, he was thought to be irreplaceable.

A funny thing happened; the Buckeyes didn’t miss him – or the replacements of his replacement. When Groom departed, Josh Huston stepped in without missing a beat. In the absence of Huston, Kyle Turano ably manned the helm. When Turano left, Ohio State used freshman A.J. Trapasso who nearly led the conference in net punting his very first season.

The same timeline could be drawn of the Ohio State place kickers. While 2001 was abysmal, freshman Mike Nugent claimed the job and went on to re-write virtually every kicking record for Ohio State. One of very few legs actually feared in college football, his clutch performances lifted the Buckeyes to victory time and again. Yet when he left, the Buckeyes put Huston in his place, and he had an arguably great season by hitting 22 of 28 and regularly knocking kickoffs into the stands. Now, Huston is no longer with the Buckeyes and two are vying to step into his cleats – Aaron Pettrey and Ryan Pretorius.

“They are following two pretty good kickers to say the least,” admitted special teams coach Darrell Hazell.

What is the commonality? Why has Ohio State had such a run of great kick specialists when others in the college football world struggled?

The one consistent during this entire period is head coach Jim Tressel and his belief in placing emphasis on special teams. Once mocked for his mantra that the ‘punt is the most important play in football,’ fans and players are coming to see his point of view. Ohio State’s special teams specialists have won game after game for the Buckeyes in his tenure.

Given the performance of Pettrey, Pretorius, and Trapasso in the preseason and the performances of kickers for Tressel in the past…there is little reason to assume this season will not be just another like the last few. In short, the Buckeyes will not just enjoy a kicking advantage; they will overwhelmingly conquer through the litany of legs they have at their disposal.

In the words of Dick Tressel, “I really think our kids have encompassed the thought that special teams are critical to being a great football team. The thing that caught my attention were some pretty talented kickers and punters. I really felt like, ‘Wow! There were some live legs out there.’ That’s exciting when all of a sudden you are saying, ‘Yeah, try a 57 yard field goal.’ That’s dynamite.”

Improvement by Ginn

Inconsistent but incredibly talented, Ted Ginn, Jr. burst on the scene in 2004. A true freshman, he had little idea what being a receiver was about and frequently wandered through the secondary as aimlessly as a lost puppy at a county fair. He fumbled almost as many kicks as he returned for touchdowns and nearly cost the Buckeyes dearly several times only to have teammates bail him out during his lapses.

This is not 2004 or even 2005; this is 2006 and there have been nothing but glowing reports issuing from fellow players and his coaches on the progress Ginn made in the off-season.

Coach Hazell enthusiastically said, “I think he has made tremendous strides from the beginning of the season and preseason last year until now. He has made unbelievable strides. He is playing a lot lower, he is playing with a lot more balance. He is playing stronger through defenders when he gets confronted and coming out of his breaks a lot cleaner. It has really been exciting for me to watch him grow up as a receiver. He still has a lot of growth left in his game as a receiver, but it has been tremendously rewarding to watch him grow up as a receiver.”

If his display against Northern Illinois and even Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl is any indication, Ginn is ready to be the big dog in the passing game. In those two contests alone he amassed 290 yards and three touchdowns on 12 receptions. These days, place kickers and punters avoid him like the plague, which cuts down on his yardage but gives the Buckeyes tremendous field advantage.

Addition Through Subtraction

Team chemistry is a very tough item to judge, but you can tell when it is and isn’t there. Great athletes are wonderful, but a single selfish player can wreck a locker room and be a cancer which slowly eats away the possibility of winning. Once divided, a team is about as easy to put back together as Humpty Dumpty.

Ohio State clearly had an off season purge. None of the players who left were asked to leave, but they did leave. They chose to go, or in the case of a few – their choices left the university no choice but to mandate their dismissal due to grades. Sian Cotton, Erik Haw, Marcel Frost, Chad Hoobler, Sirjo Welch, Brandon Maupin, and Michael Roberts were not going to help the program. Each of them had every opportunity in the world as the coaching staff and fellow players begged, cajoled, and pleaded with them to make the right choices. Roberts, to his credit, gave the Buckeyes years of service without embarrassing himself or the university; he may simply have wanted to play his final season of eligibility. However, the rest of these young men gave up too soon or never really tried at all.

Players that don’t try breed two items: (1) Other players who don’t try. Pick your adage. “One bad apple spoils the barrel,” or, “Show me your friends and I will show you your future.” While the former is biologically true due to chemical reactions involved, I’ve rarely seen cases where the latter has not been proved true sociologically. Several of these young men together can rot the team from the inside out. Granted, one should not be overly harsh on them because everyone makes mistakes. On the other hand, they were recruited and committed to do a job in return for an all expenses paid education and a possible shot at millions in the NFL. They failed to live up to their end of the bargain. (2) Players that don’t try breed discontent. Players want to play. They all would like to run – no, sprint onto the field of Ohio Stadium and hear the roar of the crowd. They would all love to feel the rush of being ‘Da man’ on the team. Therefore, not being able to play is difficult at best and often downright miserable. When a player will not put in the necessary time and is told they will not play now or in the future if something doesn’t change, it is human nature to nurture this hurt and turn it into a ‘victim’ mentality. Suddenly their inability to crack the starting lineup is not about their lack of effort in the classroom or on the practice fields but because the coaches have some unseen agenda. It would be ludicrous to think the players in question will keep their JFKesque conspiracy theories to themselves. They are all too eager to share them with teammates and occasionally even reporters.

Sometimes, you get addition through subtraction.

On the positive side are those players who have given up football but are still part of the program such as Mike D’Andrea, Devon Jordan, and Curt Lukens. While it is a loss to the team for three promising athletes to no longer be able to take the field, it can also serve as an inspiration. It takes tremendous heart, dedication, and even sacrifice to continue in a position when your body is breaking down. All three of these have given more than enough effort – and even blood and tears – to the program. If they will remain and encourage those who have taken their place, instead of weakening the team their absence may actually strengthen it.

Turnover margin

It can’t get much worse – right? When you finish among the bottom 5 teams in all of division I-A in turnover margin, one would reason the Buckeyes have nowhere to go but up.

How bad was it?

The Buckeyes, loaded with NFL talent, finished dead last in the Big Ten. With a -8 deficit for the regular season, that means scrubs at Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana, and even Illinois finished ahead of them in creating offensive opportunities for their team.

The Buckeyes would, by all standards of reasoning, almost have to try to get worse.

Coach Peterson addressed this from an offensive perspective; “I think that is a key element in any team’s success. As an offense it is something you talk about. Try to talk about it in a positive manner where the kids understand ball security. Take care of the football. Hand the ball to the official. You can’t emphasize how that affects the game as far as field position. Our kids understand that. Now they just have to do it every single snap.”

Joel Penton spoke of what the defensive coaches and players have been doing to eliminate this concern; “Little things like every time there is an incomplete pass we will pick that ball up and run it down the field. Every time the ball touches the ground we will pick it up and run it down the field. When there is a fumble in practice we don’t just look the other way and go back to the huddle. We will dive on it. It is making that emphasis.”

Of course it isn’t like the defensive coaches weren’t placing emphasis on grabbing the football last year.

Peterson noted, “I think defensive coaches are always trying to find ways to strip the ball and new techniques or new stripping drills. They do a great job and we will see how their focus turns out.”

With a defense that is young, competitive, and aggressively pursuing the football, turnovers should not be far behind.

Rankings and Schedule

Take your pick from the quotes on the Buckeyes and their #1 ranking:

Penton: “I wouldn’t call it pressure as it is a great challenge and great opportunity. It’s exciting, but we know what is most important is not the preseason ranking but where we finish at the end, so it makes us want to work that much harder. The number one ranking will take care of itself. If we can win every game…we need to concentrate on one game at a time.”

Anthony Gonzalez; “I personally don’t get caught up in the rankings. I really don’t. I know a lot of people say that but I really could care less. I take more of a realistic approach to it.”

Coach Tressel, “Oh, we just go to work. I mentioned to someone the other day from AP, ‘At Ohio state whether you are ranked high or not ranked high, the expectation to win all of your games is there. The guys who come here to school feel that way, the guys who come here to coach feel that way. Whether you are ranked there or not ranked there – that’s the way you feel – that you need to get that done.’ We know we have a lot of work to do.”

To listen to them you would think the top ranking has absolutely no meaning, but that simply isn’t true. It has two key benefits:

First, it means you don’t have to wait for others to lose to get a crack at the title. Look down the list of the national champions, and you will find the majority of teams had to wish, and hope, and even pray others ranked above them would lose. Texas claimed its 1969 championship only after Ohio State stumbled against Michigan. Florida grabbed its only national title when Ohio State lost to Michigan and then defeated Arizona State in the Rose Bowl – allowing the Gators a shot if they defeated Florida State. Ohio State was only able to get to the Fiesta Bowl in 2002 when Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, and Georgia lost in November.

Gonzalez acknowledges, “The only thing they are good for is the fact that if multiple teams are undefeated at the end of the season, and we are fortunate enough to be one of them, chances are we will be in the top spot and go to the title game. That’s the only thing I really think the polls are for.”

If they serve no other purpose for the Buckeyes this season, that would be enough. If you doubt, then ask an Auburn coach or player from their 2004 team which finished 13-0 in one of the toughest conferences in the land but were shut out of the championship game. They were forced to sit and watch USC dismantle and publicly humiliate the Sooners. Ask a Penn State alumnus what it feels like to watch Joe Paterno have five undefeated seasons but just two national championships. Check their reaction to the 1968 national championship of Ohio State, the 1969 national championship for the Longhorns, the Alabama national title in 1973, and the Cornhusker’s title in 1994. They will probably feel as if they deserved a share of those titles but were cheated by the pollsters.

Second, even if you lose, you still have hopes of a national championship. If the AP and coaches both anoint a team as being the top program in the country, one loss is not likely to completely derail the train. In fact, when most top ten teams lose they can drop out of the title race, but the top team might only fall a few slots. Oklahoma dropped just one spot in 2004 despite a horrendous beating at the hands of Kansas State; voters considered it an aberration. A loss for the Buckeyes will not be crippling because they will have the ability to come from behind and climb back into the picture.

Peterson pointed out, “I never look at a negative when you get chosen No. 1. I would never say negative. It’s always an opportunity. With that you have to take advantage of those opportunities.”

Further, while the schedule of the Buckeyes may seem title prohibitive, it may actually propel the Scarlet and Gray to a championship. Say for instance Ohio State loses at Texas in a close game on Saturday evening. They will likely drop several spots in the polls but probably no farther than 7th. Of the teams remaining in front of them, the likelihood they will emerge unscathed is remote. West Virginia and Texas would probably pose the greatest threats since their remaining schedules are as weak as my 83 year old grandmother. Meanwhile, Ohio State faces Iowa, Penn State, and Michigan with the opportunity to prove itself with wins in key games.

Defensive Line

Ever since Florida State slapped Buckeye quarterback Joe Germaine around like a rag doll in their bowl match up, Ohio State has started rotating defensive linemen. They do it as a philosophy to create depth, preserve the health of the starters, and to wear out the opponent while keeping their players fresh for the fourth quarter.

Opined senior Joel Penton, “Hopefully (with) our depth this year we can be solid all the way around and just as good in the 3rd and 4th quarter as in the first.”

2006 is the payoff year for the sometimes ineffectual defensive lines of 2004 and 2005, and depth isn’t perhaps the right phrase; the Buckeyes appear to have an embarrassment of riches. In fact, if they play to potential they may even rival the talented line of 2002 comprised of David Thompson, Kenny Peterson, Tim Anderson, Darrion Scott, and Will Smith.

“Ever since we have been here we have been hearing about them (2002 defensive line),” Penton admitted. “They were incredible. It’s hard to compare our defensive line or any defensive line to those guys. They were just incredible, but hopefully we can kind of have our own niche and be dominant out there. We are going to do our best and maybe one day we could be compared to them.”

Starting with the two defensive tackles, Quinn Pitcock and David Patterson, Ohio State will clog the middle and force teams to bounce runs outside. When the other team’s running backs bounce outside in search of greener pastures, they will find themselves facing a fast, angry man in senior defensive end Jay Richardson or sophomore Vernon Gholston. Previously inconsistent, Richardson looks like he has finally matured; he led the team in tackles for loss against Northern Illinois and regularly wrecked the Buckeye offense this spring and fall in scrimmages. Gholston, a highly touted player out of Michigan three years ago, sat out all of 2005 with an injury and has now returned bigger, faster, and apparently meaner than ever. The Huskies found him almost unblockable. When that fearsome foursome needs a break, the coaches will send in defensive tackles Joel Penton, a 5th year senior with a blue collar ethic, and Todd Denlinger, a redshirt sophomore who is likely to anchor the front for years to come. At defensive end the coaches will pick from Lawrence Wilson, a 6’6” defensive end who started the Fiesta Bowl against Notre Dame as a true freshman, Doug Worthington, a top flight 6-7 defensive end who redshirted in 2005, or Alex Barrow, a 6-5 sophomore who can play inside or on the edge depending upon the need of the defense.

If football games are won up front and the Buckeyes have concerns about their defense, then this will do nothing but help them achieve their goals. Opposing offenses will be forced to keep more players back as blockers. This means they will not have as many potential weapons running free through the secondary or weaving in and out from among the linebackers. Less weapons means less opportunities and less opportunities for an offense normally means fewer yards and points.

Defensive competition

With all the focus on the negatives of losing nine starters from the 2005 defense, including three first round selections, not enough has been said about the net positives of the competition for these slots. Against Northern Illinois, the Ohio State coaches substituted more defenders than normal, in part to see who can separate themselves from the hotly contested position battles that are running as many as three deep in some spots.

This season is going to be completely different than last. Underclassmen normally enter the year knowing no matter how hard they play, they will not take the job away from the entrenched starter. This leads to apathy which leads to a slower learning curve. When the backup is thrust into the starter’s role due to an injury they are often unprepared. By contrast, this entire off-season every player on the defense knew they had a shot at playing time. Workouts, practices, and scrimmages were especially spirited with each player believing if they could put in a few more hours of film study, improve their technique and tackling just a tad, and make one more big play, their hour would be at hand.

New middle linebacker James Laurinaitis stated, “We have a lot of guys who can play right now. It is one of those things where it keeps everyone motivated. It keeps everyone working their tail off. Hopefully some of those players who you know are great but are playing good will step up.”

Starting cornerback Malcolm Jenkins echoed, “I think we’re going to be just fine …we have a lot of people who are hungry and we have a lot of competition which is working for us to get spots so whoever us in there is going to be hungry.”

This doesn’t just push the one who eventually claims the starting role; it creates depth. Laurinaitis noted, “It’s a team game and the more players we have that can play on defense, the more depth we have. A lot of teams across the country speak about depth at positions, and I think as a whole defense we have a lot of depth. The more good players you have the better your team should be.”

Senior linebacker and former starter at Indiana John Kerr concurs, “The thing is you have to have depth. We have depth in order to accomplish big goals, so we definitely have what we need.”

Is it making a difference?

Despite mixed reviews against Northern Illinois, junior receiver Anthony Gonzalez is a believer; “To me, the only difference is the country, the Buckeye Nation at large, doesn’t know the names. The form is the same; I feel like the talent is very similar. Obviously A.J. Hawk isn’t running around out there, but you know what – James Laurinaitis is and John Kerr and Marcus Freeman and guys like that. To me, the only difference is the names. It is the same defense I have gone against for three-four years now.”

Gonzo’s assertion will be tested against the Longhorns Saturday evening, but the players and coaches believe. Patterson pointed out the players sitting behind last season’s starters weren’t exactly chopped liver; they too had been highly touted and tremendously talented recruits coming out of high school. Defensive coordinator and line coach Jim Heacock reportedly challenged players to get up and leave the meeting room if they didn’t believe they had the same capabilities and potential as the all star 2005 crew.

Running backs coach Dick Tressel’s comments sum it up, “I’ll tell you what, our guys are working hard, and I’ll be surprised if they are not a defense that can respond. Our defense isn’t waiting for our offense to outscore people; they are going to be fine. All you have to do is watch them play against us.”

Leadership

When pressed as to why this team would be different than the vastly disappointing unit of 2004, Brandon Mitchell made an interesting statement. He said the 2004 edition of the Buckeyes failed in leadership. Too many players had not stepped up but had instead simply relied on the national championship starters of 2002 and 2003.

Lacking any sense of identity in themselves and apparently more content to ride the gravy train than be the locomotive engineer, the season slipped away before they knew it and finished a disappointing 8-4 in an also-ran bowl.

This year however, younger players and returning seniors spent the off-season preparing to lead. Jenkins has been singled out by several players and coaches as one who has spent time trying to prepare the secondary. Laurinaitis at middle linebacker admits he likes the challenge of playing the center of the field since it puts him in charge, and he can eliminate any excuses from himself or others. Ted Ginn, Jr. morphed into a complete receiver.

Then there are the seniors.

Brandon Mitchell and Antonio Smith are starting in the secondary and doing their best to line up everyone in the proper place. Jay Richardson took it upon himself this summer to ensure the younger linemen were progressing and doing the little things needed to improve. Captains Doug Datish, Pitcock, and Patterson have all pushed their respective units. Even on special teams, an area where one might tempted to overlook leadership, there are players stepping forward like Drew Norman.

Norman describes the mood of the seniors, “I think the seniors as a whole have taken it on as – we have a lot of guys saying we lost a lot of leadership. You hear it and hear it and hear it and hear it and hear it. You make your mind up, ‘We are going to make sure we are good leaders. I think we have the ability to accomplish something special if we keep our heads on straight, keep getting after it, and keep putting our nose on the (grind)stone.’ I think from that standpoint we are going to have some great leadership this year.”

Perhaps the greatest leader on the team is Troy Smith.

A Heisman contender, his teammates would seemingly follow him to assault the very gates of hell if he led the way; Norman said of him, “You look at a guy like Troy Smith; he is our leader to a ‘T.’ He had a great season last year. He had a great off-season. Whatever he says – I am in line and ready to go.”

With Smith as the Pied Piper, don’t be shocked to see this parade roll into Tempe.

The Offense

Quite frankly, I’ll try not to waste much space with this point. A great deal of ink has been spilled to talk about each position in detail. Without question, this looks to be (on paper) the best unit the Buckeyes have fielded since the heady days of Germaine and quarterbacks coach Walt Harris.

Position by position:

Running back: Two upperclassmen fullbacks in Dionte Johnson and Stan White, Jr. will lead tailbacks into the hole. Neither are afraid of contact and in fact relish it. Antonio Pittman has the chops to have the best season at Ohio State since Eddie George’s senior campaign. Chris Wells has the potential to be the next Eddie George and adds a dimension to the offense with his short yardage capabilities. Maurice Wells, a scat-back with another gear, is deadly against a tired defense or when placed on the edge.

Wide Receiver: Ted Ginn, Jr. is a Heisman candidate – is there anything else necessary? Anthony Gonzalez is literally only a step slower than Ginn and is fearless across the middle. Roy Hall is a tight end in a wide receiver’s body, and he loves nothing more than to punish defensive backs after he catches the football. Brian Hartline and Brian Robiskie are two young pups pushing for playing time; they have deceptive speed and excellent size and hands. Ray Small, a freshman, will probably round out the crew of those regularly in the game, and he may be another one of those X-Box type players who makes moves normal humans are not supposed to be able to do without harming themselves.

Offensive Line: Tressel and Jim Bollman have worked since they arrived to build a line of redshirt seniors and upperclassmen. This is the year their dreams came true with four starters who are redshirt juniors or seniors and a fifth who is a sophomore man-child in Alex Boone. Toss in redshirted back ups like Steve Rhering and Ben Person, and the Ohio State offensive front is deep, talented, and likely to maul opponents.

Quarterback: Troy Smith has the opportunity to stamp himself as the greatest quarterback in the history of Ohio State. Enough said. If he were to go down, Justin Zwick will likely step in and play. While Zwick is no Smith, he has experience as a starter and can and will force a defense to play honest. He distributes the ball well and can even scramble on occasion.

Coaching

If you want to know the number one difference maker in college football, it isn’t athletes. It is not about the schedule. It isn’t about home field advantage or having the best facilities. It isn’t even about being able to play in a BCS conference.

The number one difference maker in all of college football is coaching.

Period.

End of story.

Ohio State has one of and arguably, the best clutch head coach in the sport. Tressel, just 53 years old, already owns 185 victories and five national championships. That’s a ring for every finger for the non math majors out there. If that were not enough, he has seven conference championships and has played for a total of seven national titles. With a 4-1 record against Michigan and a 4-1 bowl mark, including a 3-0 record in BCS bowls, few coaches are better overall. Some may recruit a bit more effectively and perhaps others are quicker on game day, but it may be argued none is better at all facets of their job.

After the head coach come the assistants, and for the first time in several years, the Buckeyes have returned all their positional coaches. This advantage cannot be underestimated.

Running backs coach Dick Tressel states, “I really think that allows you to review basics more quickly and then push the bar to a little higher level in terms of specificity and special situations – all those things. These are all smart coaches; they have been all along. They learn quickly, but you do, with new people, have to start at the foundational level so you have something to build on. You have some of those layers already built already and now can maybe build a little higher building. So, I think the cohesiveness of the staff allows that, and the lines of communication are already developed. I think that is probably the biggest thing. Guys know how to correspond.”

When the offense or defense is faced with a 3rd and 4 situation and the season is potentially on the line, it goes without saying corresponding and communicating are critical.

Health concerns so prevalent this summer have largely been eased and Tressel continued in his discussion of fellow coaches, “Coach Daniels, got flu type symptoms that really wore him down for a while, but he is back as far as I am concerned. Coach Bollman is back. The only thing that affects coach Bollman is he has to be smart about his rehab and making sure he does his rehabilitation, but he is back. Rehab is to prevent future issues and not to get him better than he is now. Those guys are hitting on all cylinders.”

The only significant loss for this staff was that of Alan Johnson, the conditioning coach, but his replacement Eric Lichter has met with rave reviews by players such as Richardson, “I think bringing in our new strength coach, ‘E’ – Eric was a big boost for us. Whenever you bring in a guy with a whole different system that gets the team excited – especially the young guys. He’s demanded a lot of us, and me personally. I utilized it to the fullest that I could have and I saw my biggest strength gains in a while and am in great condition. I really can’t say anything bad about Eric: I think everything (that) happened this summer’s been good.”

Conclusion:

A stable staff, a star quarterback, a young but talented defense, special special teams, a favorable ranking, and a home field advantage all combine to send one message. The Buckeyes will be waiting in Tempe for whoever has the courage to face them.