BCS and the Future of the Sport
This weekend is D-Day for college football and the powers that be. D-Day as
in decisions – decisions which will impact the present but also decisions
determining the future course of the sport.
Right now bowl committees and the college football sporting world are
awaiting results from championships games in the SEC, Big 12, and ACC to
determine who will play where. If all goes as anticipated and Texas and USC win
– there will be four teams vying for two at large slots in the BCS. Once those
are filled, the rest of the bowls will make their selections and fans feverishly
will make travel plans.
So what does this have to do with the future of the sport?
Two years ago in a decision that has already hurt the quality of the game,
the BCS removed strength of schedule from its formula. When the Buckeyes nearly
ended up in the championship game over Oklahoma and USC was locked out in favor
of LSU, the media threw a tantrum of obscene proportions. How could this have
happened they cried? Remove the strength of schedule they demanded.
Remove it they did, and now we see the result.
Notre Dame and Oregon are both sitting pretty. The Irish have two losses and
the Ducks just one, but looking at who they have played – it is no wonder.
Choosing both of these two teams to play in the BCS (which is a possibility)
would be a slap in the face to all the sport has stood for since its inception.
While Ohio State was playing Texas, Oregon scheduled I-AA foe Montana. While
Auburn played teams like Georgia Tech, South Carolina, LSU, Georgia, and
Alabama, Notre Dame faced Pittsburgh, Michigan, Michigan State, USC, and
Stanford…
The fact of the matter is that if strength of schedule were still part of the
mix and politics removed from voting, both Notre Dame and Oregon would likely be
far behind the Buckeyes and the Tigers – behind Miami, UCLA, Georgia, and
probably even Alabama.
Look at their schedules in comparison to those of Ohio State and Auburn
|
OSU |
ND |
Oregon |
Auburn |
|
Miami (7-4)
W 34-14 |
Pittsburgh (5-6)
W 42-21 |
Houston (6-5)
W 38-24 |
Georgia Tech (7-4)
L 14-23 |
|
Texas (11-0)
L 22-25 |
Michigan (7-4)
W 17-10 |
Montana (8-4)
W 47-14 |
Mississippi State (3-8)
W 28-0 |
|
San Diego State (5-6)
W 27-6 |
Michigan State (5-6)
L 44-41 |
Fresno State (8-3)
W 37-34 |
Ball State (4-7)
W 63-3 |
|
Iowa (7-4)
W 31-6 |
Washington (2-9)
W 36-17 |
USC (11-0)
L 13-45 |
W. Kentucky (6-5)
W 37-14 |
|
Penn State (10-1)
L 10-17 |
Purdue (5-6)
W 49-28 |
Stanford (5-6)
W 44-20
|
South Carolina (7-4)
W 48-7 |
|
Michigan State (5-6)
W 35-24 |
USC (11-0)
L 31-34 |
Arizona State (6-5)
W 31-17 |
Arkansas (4-7)
W 34-17 |
|
Indiana (4-7)
W 41-10 |
BYU (6-5)
W 49-23 |
Washington (1-10)
W 45-21 |
LSU (10-1)
L 17-20 (OT) |
|
Minnesota (7-4)
W 45-31 |
Tennessee (5-6)
W 41-21 |
Arizona (3-8)
W 28-21 |
Mississippi (3-8)
W 27-3 |
|
Illinois (2-9)
W 40-2 |
Navy (6-4)
W 41-21 |
California (7-4)
W 27-20 |
Kentucky (3-8)
W 49-27 |
|
Northwestern (7-4)
W 48-7 |
Syracuse (1-10)
W 34-10 |
Washington State (4-7)
W 34-31 |
Georgia (9-2)
W 31-30 |
|
Michigan (7-4)
W 25-21 |
Stanford (5-6)
W 38-31 |
Oregon State (5-6)
W 56-14 |
Alabama (9-2)
W 28-18 |
|
Combined record of Opponents 72-49 (59%) |
Combined record of Opponents 58-62 (48%) |
Combined record of Opponents*
56-54 (51%) |
Combined Record of Opponents*
59-51 (54%) |
*Excludes Division I-AA opponents.
Notre Dame has had exactly one game against a decent opponent on the road.
That was Michigan, and had the Wolverines not played like the Three Stooges with
a questionable call to end a probable touchdown drive, they still would have won
that game. Notre Dame faced four teams with a winning record with a 1-1 mark
against ranked opponents, and both losses came at home. In fact, their biggest
claim to fame is a loss. You heard that right – a loss. It was the close call
against USC. When Notre Dame is really good, they don’t have to point to a
loss to make their season legitimate; they point to quality wins. Their other
loss of course was against Michigan State who isn’t even eligible for a bowl.
Meanwhile, the Ducks have a pretty record but were absolutely blown out of the
water by USC in Eugene with the final margin of 32 points. Worse, the Pac Ten as
a league appears as strong as a wet noodle with defenses that couldn’t stop a
ball if it was rolling uphill.
Auburn and Ohio State, playing in arguably the toughest two conferences in
the sport, have come through a vastly more difficult schedule, losing only two
games by razor thin margins – against the #2 (Texas), #3 (Penn State), #5 (LSU),
and #24 (Georgia Tech) ranked teams in the BCS. Both have fantastic defenses and
over the course of the season have developed an offense to go with them. They
aren’t just beating people right now; they are dismantling them. They faced
better competition, came out with an equal record, and their teams look to be
playing their best football instead of limping past a Stanford with a last
minute win or barely beating a 4-7 Washington State.
Take out politics, petty voting, personal likes and dislikes, and Auburn and
Ohio State end up in the BCS.
It’s not even close.
If the BCS and powers that be choose Notre Dame and Oregon over Auburn and
Ohio State, it will send a clear message -- play the weakest teams you possibly
can. Toss out the tradition and history of the sport in favor of a few cheap
wins, and you will be rewarded.
Designing a Defense
This season one of the persistent questions among fans has been, ‘Just
where does the 2005 defense rank among the great ones at Ohio State?’
While my perspective is perhaps controversial, I would rank this unit well
below the 2002 defense. Though the 2005 defense is very good and probably the
equal of the 1996 and 2003 versions, there have been breakdowns in tackling,
pressuring the opposing quarterback, and forcing turnovers. To illustrate my
point on why I think this year’s unit is borderline great, but not quite
there, I’d like to pose a question:
If you were given a chance to draft the best players from both 2002 and 2005,
who would you take at each position?
Starters
DE Will Smith or Mike Kudla?
DE Darrion Scott or David Patterson?
DT Kenny Peterson or Marcus Green?
DT Tim Anderson or Quinn Pitcock?
OLB Robert Reynolds or A.J. Hawk?
MLB Matt Wilhelm or Anthony Schlegel?
OLB Cie Grant or Bobby Carpenter?
CB Chris Gamble or Ashton Youboty?
CB Dustin Fox or Malcolm Jenkins?
SS Mike Doss or Donte Whitner?
FS Donnie Nickey or Nate Salley?
Reserves
NB Will Allen or Brandon Mitchell?
DT David Thompson or Joel Penton?
Out of the 13 starters and key reserves, I would choose 10 from the 2002 team
and possibly more. The only player from 2005 certain to make the cut would be
A.J. Hawk, and he started against Penn State in 2002.
What made that 2002 unit so dominant? Why would I favor them in a battle
between the two teams?
In a word, speed.
After nearly every game, opposing coaches, players, and fans were simply in
awe of the speed of that team. Shell-shocked, they admitted film simply did not
do that unit justice. Scout team preparation in no way, shape, or form could
simulate the NFL-type quickness at multiple positions, and it truly was
NFL-quick. Every starter from 2002 was either drafted or signed a free agent
contract at the next level.
Offenses were stymied. They couldn’t break off long chunks of yardage. They
couldn’t gain the corner on running plays to the outside. When testing the
interior they found Peterson and Anderson whipping their men waiting for the
hapless running back. Passing across the middle was perilous at best and
foolhardy at worst with Doss headhunting and Wilhelm ranging back to tip (or
intercept) balls in the air. On the outside Gamble picked off balls left and
right like…like a converted wide receiver. If they wanted to sit the
quarterback in the pocket and test Fox they suddenly found one of a host of
Buckeyes greeting him with bad intentions. If they tried to slow down the rush
with a delay or screen, it was foiled by the speed of Grant or savvy of Wilhelm
and Smith.
The 2002 defense was wicked.
With 2005 nearly gone and 2006 rolling inexorably around, the question is –
can the Buckeyes go back to the future? Was the 2002 defense a once in a
lifetime group, or can it be built on a yearly basis?
At the risk of making a complete fool of myself, in my next article I’ll
describe exactly how I believe the Buckeyes could be as dominant (or nearly as
dominant) in 2006 as they were in 2002 even with significant personnel losses
they will suffer due to graduation.