While Rich Rodriguez patiently awaits his first shot at Ohio State, John Beilein capitalized on his first shot at
the Buckeyes in Ann Arbor and second overall.
Michigan (8-17, 4-9 Big Ten) won its third consecutive game,
beating Ohio State 80-70 Sunday afternoon in Ann Arbor. It was a bubble-blowing
defeat for Ohio State (17-9, 8-5 Big Ten) who is now in dangerous territory for
NCAA Tournament hopes.
Just 12 days ago, Michigan led Ohio State for nearly 35
minutes before capsizing in the final laps in Columbus. But since then,
Michigan has dug deep for victories against Iowa and Penn State. Sunday, Ohio
State was trying to avoid being upset by a sub-100 team in the RPI – a blow
to the postseason resume the Buckeyes couldn’t afford.
But this time, it was Michigan that looked like a
postseason-hungry team anxious for a win.
Though the Wolverines will not be playing in March beyond
the Big Ten Tournament – that is of course unless they do the unthinkable
and win it, they’re putting together some nice building blocks for next
season. Behind freshman Manny Harris and senior walk-on David Merritt, Michigan
made all the plays down the stretch, outscoring Ohio State 11-4 over the final
five minutes.
Michigan played inspired, quality basketball. For the first
time all season, the young Wolverines are buying into their new head coach’s
philosophy. Ohio State dared Michigan’s bigger wings to shoot from
outside, and the game of roulette backfired on the Buckeyes. When pressing
Michigan’s guards, Harris and Merritt specifically, they simply beat Ohio
State by penetrating.
It was a can’t-win scenario for Ohio State. Trying to
apply three quarters-court pressure after made baskets, the Buckeyes were
unable to discomfort Michigan’s guards or force sloppy turnovers.
Instead, it was the Buckeyes making sloppy and often lazy passes, while
Michigan easily broke pressure and often found open 3-pointers in transition.
Merritt, who averages 1.3 points per game, scored 7 points
in the first half – a career high. In the second half, he failed to score
before sitting the last six minutes with a knee injury, but continued to come
up with loose balls, played hard-nosed defense and had several hustle plays
that inspired the Michigan crowd.
Though Ohio State got good production out of their freshmen
trio Evan Turner (16 points and 11 rebounds), Kosta Koufos (18 points and 12 rebounds) and Jon Diebler (10 points and five rebounds), the Buckeyes went cold
when it mattered most. Michigan, on the other hand, missed very few free throws
down the stretch to ice the game, and when they did miss, recovered the
offensive rebound on more than a few occasions.
The Analysis
When Michigan Had the
Ball
*Though Ohio State is credited with a strong defense, given
their rank of No. 6 nationally in field goal percentage defense, it’s
sometimes a “double-dog dare” type of defense. Opponents of Ohio
State have one of the highest percentages of 3-point shots taken to their
overall field goal attempts, meaning teams will naturally shoot a little bit
lower percentages than opponents of other teams. Sunday, the Buckeye defenders
refused to step out beyond the 3-point line to guard shots, and often ducked
under high screens, daring Michigan to shoot. Guess what? They did (10-of-24
3-point).
*What’s more bizarre about the refusal to extend the
zone is that the guys making some of those shots for Michigan were not threats
to penetrate. Deshawn Sims and Anthony Wright –
a pair of 235-point forwards, combine for 32 percent from 3-point range this
season, but are even less inclined to dribble. Yet, the Buckeyes barely lunged
at them when shooting (5-of-11 combined) and rarely challenged their shots.
*As mentioned earlier, the full-court pressure had little
effect on the Michigan guards. Hoping to create an up-tempo style, cause a few
turnovers or get the inexperienced backcourt to make mistakes, the Buckeyes had
little success with the pressure. In fact, it can be argued that it often
backfired. Many shots by Michigan were made in these transition scenarios where
Ohio State was slow to rotate or lazy to get back and recover.
*Merritt, a 5-10 senior from West Bloomfield, Mich. was the
hero of all heroes this afternoon. His 7 points helped enter the locker room in
a 38-38 tie and his passing, sideline saves and defensive pressure lit a fire
in the Ann Arbor crowd and his teammates. It wasn’t quite a case of “Rudy,”
given the stakes weren’t so high, but it was a story nonetheless.
*A sad but true fact about Sunday’s game was that
Michigan’s scholarship guards were a combined 8-of-27 from the field.
However, while Kelvin Grady and Ron Coleman combined on just 8 points, Harris
had a game-high 27 points thanks to his instinctive offense and 10-of-11
showing from the charity stripe. If not for super freshman Eric Gordon, Harris
could be a quiet contender for newcomer of the year.
When Ohio State Had
the Ball
*It was excellent first-half execution for Ohio State
playing two-man basketball. The high pick-and-roll worked exceptionally well
with Jamar Butler and Koufos.
Ohio State also tried a couple of give-and-go plays in the corner, and twice
attempted the high-low from the elbow. The Buckeyes had a couple of nice
backdoor cuts on the baseline, although a few of them went missed by Ohio State
ball-handlers. The ball-movement, for once, was never really an issue in the
second half. There were a lot of possessions with crisp passing, but shots
stopped falling for Ohio State.
*Unlike the ball movement, taking care of the basketball was
not something to write home about for Ohio State. Lazy, telegraphed passes
littered the perimeter for the Buckeyes, often leading to steals or reset
possessions. On a few occasions, it led to easy fastbreak
points. Butler, the usually steady Eddie was also a culprit of this careless
play.
*While the 7-1 Koufos has been
showing extremely improved confidence in his offensive game over the past 2-3
weeks, his confidence has sometimes become detrimental to Ohio State. It’s
becoming extremely rare that Koufos passes the ball
once he is given an entry pass. Even from 15-feet from the basket, Koufos will work for a shot regardless of how forced, even
if it means passing up a kick-out opportunity for an open teammate. By late
last season, the Buckeyes had perfected the inside-outside passing of Mike Conley, Butler and Daequan Cook by getting the ball
into Greg Oden, and if he sensed a double or triple
team, or knew he didn’t have a clear shot, he wasn’t afraid to kick
the ball back out for an open 3-pointer. It is unfortunate Koufos
couldn’t have a year to learn from Oden in that
regard.
*Though it’s hard to see the long view after such a heart-breaking
loss, Ohio State fans can find comfort in the slow development of Koufos, Diebler and continued
production from Turner. Slowly, Ohio State has been getting more consistent
scoring on the offensive end, meaning with games looming against Wisconsin,
Michigan State and Purdue in Columbus, an upset or two is not out of the
question if the Buckeyes don’t lapse defensively.
Though this loss doesn’t kill Ohio State’s NCAA
Tournament chances, it certainly puts the Buckeyes squarely on the bubble for
now. A 12-6 or 11-7 finish in the Big Ten (meaning 4-1 or 3-2 the rest of the
way) would certainly be good enough, most likely, for a trip to the NCAA
Tournament. Of course, with three very tough home games coming up, and trips to
Minnesota and Indiana, very little should be taken for granted the rest of the
way.
A disastrous finish (0-5 or 1-4) by Ohio State might likely
spell doom and N.I.T. But though overused clichés are tiresome in these
situations, the Buckeyes truly need to worry about one game at a time.
On the flip side, Michigan can continue riding this hot
streak and finish respectably this season, giving the Wolverines a crack at an
upper echelon finish in the Big Ten next season. In a conference that may see
Michigan State, Purdue and Ohio State as the preseason favorites, Michigan,
Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa all figure to be solid teams and in some
cases, drastically improved.
But Ohio State has this year to think about.
It didn’t look like they were doing much thinking
about it Sunday. Michigan was the one that could lay that claim.