Ten Reasons Ohio State Will NOT Win the National Championship
Pardon the skeptic. Really, pardon the skeptics, the cynics, and those who
are not into Cinderella stories. Ohio State has been anointed as the top team
in the nation to start the 2006 season, but the likelihood they maintain that
distinction through the end of the season is just a bit better than Iran
welcoming Salman Rushdie back and Tehran officials giving him a key to the city.
Why?
I’ll give you ten reasons.
Leadership gap
How do you replace a leader? Even more important, how do you replace a
great leader?
In war, one of the primary objectives is to take out the generals of an
opposing force. If you can neutralize those in charge and then can take out the
commanders on the field of battle itself – you are almost assured of victory.
The only way you still lose is if the opposing force is simply so numerous and
has a strategic advantage of such extreme measure that it cannot be countered.
Ohio State lost a plethora of leaders from its 2005 squad. They showed up
all over the NFL draft board and included Santonio Holmes, Nick Mangold, Rob
Sims, A.J. Hawk, Bobby Carpenter, Donte Whitner, Nate Salley, Ashton Youboty,
Tyler Everett, Mike Kudla, and Anthony Schlegel – among others.
Each of these players was capable of being a team leader.
Yes, others have stepped up, but who among the Ohio State defense is a first
round pick in the upcoming draft? Perhaps David Patterson and Quinn Pitcock
might qualify, but these two are in the front of the action. They are not able
to command their troops and place them in the correct position. Who will lead
the linebackers? Who will lead the secondary?
It takes time to develop leadership. Players like Hawk, Carpenter, and
Schlegel had put on a physical display for years before they assumed the roles
they did in 2005. The current group of linebackers is led by James Laurinaitis,
who started two games in 2005, and both of those were due to Carpenter’s broken
leg and despite playing in all 12 games logged just 9 tackles. For perspective,
Carpenter had a tackle on the first play of his career and Hawk (as a freshman)
logged 26 tackles, including 5 tackles and an interception in his first career
start – against Penn State. Mike Doss was already a two time All American
before he was named captain in 2002, but the 2006 secondary is reportedly being
led by Malcolm Jenkins, a true sophomore who started due to Tyler Everett’s
injuries in 2005.
Other than Troy Smith, this team has a leadership vacuum from their
tremendous losses in 2005, and while Smith is a tremendous leader he can’t play
every position and make every play. The loss of leadership will be felt and
probably sooner than later.
Coaching Health Issues and the Loss of
Strength and Conditioning Coach Alan Johnson.
Clearly the Fates were not spinning a favorable future for the Buckeyes this
spring and summer. While everyone was apparently wiping their brow in relief
the staff had not been raided once again, it was time for breaking out the
Rolaids; Jim Bollman and Joe Daniels were sidelined with health issues and key
strength and conditioning coach Alan Johnson resigned.
Bollman suffered chest pains and underwent heart surgery on May 27. While
the surgery went well, it still interrupted preseason preparation, recruiting,
and even staff cohesion. Stories abounded from Buckeye players who went over to
visit him.
Projected starter Tim Schafer said, “We all went over together to his house
and checked on him and saw how he was doing to try to get him to feel better.
He tells us that his wife has been watching his diet really well for him so he
thanks her for that, I guess.”
While Bollman may or may not actually thank his wife for helping him stick to
the fatless, flavorless diet of a person rehabilitating from heart surgery, from
all reports he is progressing well with his rehabilitation. Indications are, as
a heart patient recovers they actually regain strength they haven’t had in years
prior due to the now normalized blood flow.
Currently all eyes are on Daniels though as he not only suffered a mild heart
attack but was also diagnosed with cancer (on June 20). The situation is
serious enough that Ohio State appealed to the NCAA for a waiver if need be so
the coach can be replaced if his strength is sapped by the ordeal of treatment
and working full time. Daniels’ health appears to be holding for now, but it is
not a given that his condition will not worsen.
Finally, the loss of coach Johnson isn’t something to simply be glossed over
and ignored. He may not seem to have been critical to the success experienced
by Ohio State since Tressel took the reins, but appearances can be deceiving.
For the last five years, injuries have been down for the Buckeyes, and they
physically peaked in November while other teams wore down, stumbled, and fell
flat on their face. You rarely saw any Ohio State starters winded with their
hands on their hips. The difference was especially telling in their annual tilt
with Michigan; no true Buckeye fan is likely to forget Antonio Pittman or
Maurice Hall scampering into the end zone for late scores over a tired Wolverine
defense. Scarlet and Gray legions will forever remember Santonio Holmes,
Anthony Gonzalez, and Ted Ginn, Jr. flashing by thundering (and plodding) herds
of Maize and Blue defenders like bolts of lightning.
Simply assuming new strength and conditioning coach Eric Lichter will be as
accomplished or successful is dangerous. Preparing young men for a single day
of draft tests and preparing young men for a grinding three month schedule with
three hour games are worlds apart.
Inconsistency by Ted Ginn, Jr. and the Loss
of Santonio Holmes
Three years ago, Buckeyes were convinced the loss of Michael Jenkins would
not be felt nearly so greatly because of their new superstar, Holmes. Holmes,
they said, would be another Terry Glenn in 2004, torching defenses on his way to
a thousand yard season. In the first half of the season they were right; Holmes
put on a show, but then he discovered what it was like to be the victim of the
dreaded double team. It was as fun as a root canal at the local dentist and
about as painful. His body took a beating, and by November he wasn’t the same
receiver.
Fast forward to 2006 and Holmes (who took the pressure off of Ginn and
Gonzalez) is now in the NFL. This means trouble for his two compadres who will
now garner more attention than a case of Godiva at a Weight Watcher’s
convention. How they will handle the assignment is not yet known, but what is
on tape for all to see is Ginn’s sometimes inconsistent ball skills and route
running.
For all that many wanted to draw and quarter the offensive coaches at Ohio
State in 2004 and 2005 for not getting the football in Ginn’s hands more often;
the problem did not lie with them but with their speedy wideout and return
specialist. Ginn, a defensive back in high school, was frequently found where
he was not supposed to be on the field…and not so frequently found where he was
supposed to be. With his sometimes sloppy route running, Texas Longhorns
defensive backs scoffed at the idea he was a great receiver though they clearly
respected Holmes. Ginn did little to disprove their assertions as Texas won the
game and largely neutralized him. Worse, he was prone to fumbling the football
on kickoff and punt returns and almost cost his team the game against Michigan.
The question is – which Ginn will show up for the Buckeyes in big games in
2006? Will it be the new and improved version that has been touted all spring
and summer by teammates and coaches? Will it be the player who plays to his
full potential and makes adult males across the nation suffer a man crush for
his abilities? Will it be the wideout who was more open than the barn door
against Northern Illinois? Or, will it be the Ginn who drops punts because he
is thinking about where he will go with the football? Will it be the Ginn who
squanders opportunities and leaves his inexperienced defensive teammates in a
no-win situation? Will it be the Ginn who allows himself to be taken out of the
football game by a physical defensive back?
Transfers and Off-Season Personnel Losses.
Just when it appeared several key players would (or at least should) finally
step up and be ready to contribute to the Ohio State team in 2006, they
transferred or left school. Granted, there are transfers and those with grade
problems every season, but normally there isn’t a mass exodus. This off-season
brought a flood to the point where one began to wonder if the last one out the
door would turn out the lights.
First is the case of Sian Cotton. If there has been a more physically gifted
defensive tackle at Ohio State in the Tressel era, I haven’t seen him. Cotton
had first round pick written all over every inch of his mammoth body. He could
plug the run or rush the passer with ease. The problem is he underachieved. He
remains the only player I have personally seen defy the Ohio State coaches
during a practice, and finally, with the depth at defensive tackle in need of
his presence, he took his marbles and went elsewhere.
Chad Hoobler is also a loss for this team. When he showed up on the scene,
he looked like the middle linebacker of the future for Ohio State. Then,
somewhere along the way, the plan went awry. An underachieving 2005 left
lingering questions; fans (and undoubtedly coaches) were disappointed to see him
passed by virtually every player on the depth chart – many of whom were younger
and had had less time to learn the defense. Finally, when the coaches requested
he change positions to help the team, he transferred. What started out as a
bang with a bright career ended with a fizzle and not a sizzle.
Then there are Marcel Frost and Erik Haw, still teammates but now at Jackson
State instead of Ohio State. These two also had tremendous potential (and still
do). Frost, his high school coach said, could do things that were simply not
natural for a man his size. Indeed, his speed at the tight end position had the
potential to change games. Lined up against many linebackers, he could beat
them to the football and then smash into small defensive backs in the secondary
for chunks of yardage. Haw too was a physical freak with a body almost the size
as Chris Wells but the speed of Maurice Wells. He languished on the bench at
Ohio State, and instead of gutting it out and forcing his way to the top of the
depth chart, opted to transfer. His loss would have been more critical in 2005
with only Pittman and Maurice Wells carrying the ball in front of him but even
so – he represents one less weapon for the Ohio State team.
Nor does this touch the others. Michael Roberts, a defensive back who might
have contributed in a young secondary, left for Indiana State. Sirjo Welch, a
one time special teams demon deeply missed in 2005, is no longer playing
football for the Buckeyes. Brandon Maupin, another defensive tackle with
talent, like Welch, is no longer on the team. Devin Jordan, Curt Lukens, and
Mike D’Andrea have all been forced to leave their playing days behind due to
injuries.
Taken individually, none of these players are key to winning a title. Taken
as a whole, their departure hurts the Buckeyes in key positions. Frost, Cotton,
D’Andrea, and Haw in particular might have come on down the stretch to put this
team over the top like a Kenny Peterson/David Thompson or Maurice Hall or
Mangold/Sims.
Nor is it just the loss of talent.
Redshirt senior Norman admits, “I think for us, we are always sad to see guys
go because we are family, and it is like a brother leaving. Any time a member
of your family leaves it is disappointing you feel bad for them. You run your
heart out to them and would do anything you could to help them, but there is
that fine line of you have to get back to business and back to work. I think
when something like that happens you lend your hand out to the guy who is
leaving and say, ‘Hey, if there is anything we can do we would love to help
you.’ Stay in touch with them but then get back to work. We have 12 teams on
the schedule that are coming after us. It will be a challenge every week.”
It will now, arguably, be an even bigger challenge.
Pressure and Rankings
When asked about the lofty start of being proclaimed number one before the
first games have even been played, head coach Jim Tressel said, “Really, at the
beginning I don’t know what it can do for you. There is a target (already) on
our chest when the silver helmets come out there.”
Players like it and coaches admit it is flattering, but the reality is – most
fans hope their team is named No. 2 or No. 3 to start the season. Being number
one is tantamount to Kevin Costner’s ride to start the movie, Dances with
Wolves. It is not simply everyone is shooting at you as normal for an Ohio
State or USC or Texas. Other teams gun for you as if their season depended on
it.
No team in Columbus has ever started and ended No. 1. On every previous
attempt, the story ends with heartbreak. The two most painful are arguably 1969
and 1998. I could rehash the details, but honestly – why? Most Ohio State fans
already know the whole story by heart.
Will 2006 join the litany of memories and almost but no cigar?
Night games
Superman had his kryptonite, Spiderman wanted to be a regular guy, Wonder
Woman was useless with her wrists tied, and Tressel has night games on the road.
During his tenure, the Buckeyes have played night games at UCLA, Wisconsin,
Northwestern (twice), and Penn State. They are 1-4 with their lone victory
coming over a hapless 2002 Wildcats squad that finished 3-9 with blowout losses
to Air Force and TCU and only one Big Ten Conference victory (a 41-37 squeaker
over Indiana). The Wisconsin loss in 2003 and the 0-2 mark at night in 2005
cost the Buckeyes a shot at two more national titles.
This year, in preparation for their scheduled match ups with Texas and Iowa,
Ohio State coaches have held not one but two night practices.
According to Tressel after the August 21 scrimmage, “You know, most of our
guys played under the lights in high school. We wanted to get out here. We
don’t have lights on our practice field so typically we don’t get night
rehearsal so we just thought it would be a good idea. A couple of the
upperclassmen mentioned this winter and during some of our evaluations, ‘Hey
coach, why don’t we get a workout under the lights?’ So, I think your juices
get flowing a little bit. I think they had a lot of fun, and it was
unbelievable to see how many people came and got the kids autographs and just
enjoyed the evening.”
Sure, people say this is overblown and to an extent, it is. However, the
fact remains that Ohio State has not performed up to expectations in night road
games since 2002. Nor should one be fooled; Tressel is highly strategic in
everything that goes into the program. If he thought it would give his players
an advantage, he would buy a different kind of shoe laces, and you can bet the
new policy of night practices – and even one in a field across town – is
designed to correct a perceived weakness.
Ohio State coaches are well aware of the hurdle they must leap to be a
national champion contender, and they know it has been a flaw. They are trying
to overcome it, but the question is – will they?
Turnover margin
Every year in the last four, the Ohio State defense has been producing fewer
turnovers. Perhaps the scheme has grown a tad stale and opposing teams have
adjusted to the Mark Dantonio/Mel Tucker/Mark Snyder/Jim Heacock designed
defense. Perhaps the lower production is indicative of what became of the 1996
Fred Pagac philosophy when other coaches figured out a way to first slow, and
then nearly halt the bleeding.
Perhaps this is about the players. The 2002 defense had Chris Gamble, Will
Allen, Mike Doss, Will Smith, Darrion Scott, and Dustin Fox – all of whom could
force turnovers in a heartbeat. The 2003 defense had most of those players but
deeply missed Mike Doss opposite Will Allen. In 2004, the Buckeyes lacked
pressure up front for most of the season and even went without Dustin Fox who
was injured. Their greatest playmaker was Hawk. In 2005, the Buckeyes were
loaded with talent, but few of their defensive leaders other than Hawk and
Whitner could force – or did force – turnovers.
The players and coaches have taken note and according to David Patterson,
“This year we are really making a bigger emphasis on turnovers. We always make
an emphasis on turnovers, but last year we didn’t make as many as wanted to so
this year we want to increase our turnovers a lot and give our offense more
chances with the ball to give us a better chance to win.”
That sounds wonderful, but against Northern Illinois, the Ohio State offense
turned the ball over twice and the Buckeye defense only forced a turnover once.
In short, Ohio State is already in the hole -1 on turnover margin, and at
this rate will be bringing up the bottom of Division I-A once again.
Field Goal Kicking
There may be no worries at punter with the return of A.J. Trapasso, but five
years of Josh Huston and Mike Nugent has left Ohio State spoiled. Since 2002,
those two kickers combined to hit 87 field goals on 102 attempts. For the non
math majors, that is a percentage of 86%.
Flat out, that is almost mind boggling when you consider these are 18-22 year
old young men. They trot out onto the field with millions of dollars on the
line for their school as well as the hopes and dreams of tens of millions of
fans. Then they are asked to kick a ball upwards of 150 feet through winds
while 11 angry behemoths are trying to rip their head off. The ball must go
high enough to evade the sasquatch types on the defensive line whose upraised
arms could scratch a giraffe’s chin but still be accurate enough to split a pair
of uprights that seem impossibly far away.
Consider in 2004, the Oregon State kicker missed more field goals in a day
than Nugent did in an entire season. Consider that while Bobby Bowden and Lloyd
Carr have lost more games to kicking than they can shake a stick at, the
Buckeyes have done the exact opposite; in 2003 they won three games without the
benefit of an offensive touchdown.
While Aaron Pettrey and Ryan Pretorius are both gifted place kickers who have
performed at or above expectations leading up to the game against Northern
Illinois, the fact remains they are unproven. The fact remains; neither has
claimed the job as the field goal kicker because neither has actually kicked a
field goal in 2006. Nobody – including their coaches – knows how they will
perform when the game is on the line in the fourth quarter, and they must either
nail a kick or go home a loser.
The Schedule
You show me a team that is playing Ohio State’s schedule, and I will show you
one with several losses – at least two and possibly more. I don’t care if it is
the 2002 Buckeyes or the 1972 Dolphins; this is a brutal slate they have to
face. Before they even leave September they play two teams which won their
conference championship (Penn State and Texas), another team projected in the
top 10 (Iowa), a strong MAC program which played for and barely lost their
league title in the waning seconds (Northern Illinois), and a pesky team whose
players all carry a grudge against Ohio State since they would have loved to
play for the Buckeyes (Cincinnati). This is a recipe for disaster. Maybe it is
not the Hindenburg, but it clearly isn’t going to be the smoothest sailing.
All told, Ohio State faces six teams which went to a bowl in 2005 and two who
finished in the top five. Add the Buckeyes, and that accounts for 60 percent of
the top five teams from last season.
When asked, Tressel did not deny the task will be like scaling Everest
without oxygen. “No. It will be brutal,” he said.
Are you going to tell me – realistically and with a straight face – that Ohio
State is going to go undefeated? If you can, I either need a sample of whatever
you are taking or I need to consider entering you in some sort of poker
tournament. Sure it could happen, but the odds are long.
Defensive Losses
I’ve heard it all before.
“Sure, we lost nine starters, but the players behind them were good too! The
Buckeyes don’t rebuild they just reload.”
Problem number one is if the players behind the starters were so good last
year, then why weren’t they starting? Seriously. Think about that one for a
moment. If they are so absurdly talented then why didn’t Salley and Whitner sit
the bench while Nick Patterson and Brandon Mitchell started? Why didn’t
Laurinaitis step over the supposedly ‘step slow’ Anthony Schlegel like one of
the boars the latter hunted and gutted on vacation in Texas? Why wasn’t Jenkins
blazing by Ashton Youboty or Hawk forced to watch John Kerr or Marcus Freeman
take away his playing time?
This spring, Carpenter commented about the new defensive crew; “I talked to
Troy and hopefully the offense will put up 35 for a while and give the defense a
little bit of a learning curve. Talent is great but nothing replaces experience.
I would take a less talented who had more experience in a game because when the
bullets start flying out there it is tough to make calls, checks, and get
everyone lined up. I think that is something that really helped our defense this
year. We had a lot of three-year starters out there who had played together.
They had been through the fires of the Big Ten season.”
Bottom line – you don’t replace nine starters as easily as some are
projecting. It just doesn’t happen. While the media and fans may fawn over
this fantastic offense, the coaches know they have a top rate challenge to just
survive their first five games without flaming out in a blaze of glory
defensively.
When asked, defensive coordinator Jim Heacock admitted, “I think we have a
huge challenge ahead of us. You can’t for a minute think there isn’t. We have
some young guys. We have some guys who haven’t played a whole lot of college
football and maybe the last time they played was in high school.”
The last time some of these starters played extensively was high
school, and right out of the gate they are facing Texas, Penn State, and Iowa?
Reality check: the last two times Ohio State had to replace this many
quality players on defense – 1999 and 2004. The former team ended in a 6-6
debacle while the latter managed to win 5 of their final 6 to reach 8-4.
Particularly distressing for those who follow the Buckeyes should be the
defensive secondary.
According to Malcolm Jenkins, “It all depends on how we work throughout camp,
how good we get and how many quality repetitions we get, but I have a positive
outlook on it. We’ll just see how good we are as the season progresses.”
Hmm…
We’ll see?
What about Tressel? Surely he will be brimming with confidence as he was
prior to last season. What are his thoughts?
“I think we have the makings of a good defense. Every week when you face
something a little different and people have some special things for you and you
have to learn on the run, that will be the biggest challenge. Most everything
that both the offense and the defense faced today, they have seen for a couple
of weeks and have rehearsed it, etc. I think it means we are going to have a
competitive defense.”
On the surface that is reassuring until one remembers Tressel is the
consummate wordsmith. When he chooses words and phrases like ‘makings’
and ‘learn on the run’ and ‘competitive’ it means while he has
confidence in his players, the jury is still out on this team’s defense.
A quote just before they faced Northern Illinois says it all, “I
think what it says is you really don't know until you play games, because it's
very difficult to know for sure, and we're going to play a number of players. I
think when you look at our depth chart, maybe at the start of the Big Ten
schedule; you'll really see what our depth chart is. I don't know that there
will be great changes, I'm not saying that, I'm saying I think we'll know.”
The painful bottom line…at this point not even the
coaches are 100 percent sure who is going to be starting in two weeks.