With all the talk in recent years about parity in college football, perhaps
it is time to examine this commonly accepted belief.
Back in the days of Bear Bryant, Woody Hayes, and Darryl Royal, the lower
tier programs had about as much chance to win a national title as a bearded lady
winning Miss America. The largest schools stockpiled athletes; even their scout
team could handily defeat most of their opponents. This led to nicknames like
the ‘Big Two and Little Eight’ or ‘Big Two and Little Six” in the Big Ten and
Big Eight conferences respectively. It also led to such ridiculous (but true)
stories such as the time Bryant promised Paul Hornung he would give a full
scholarship to every senior on his high school football team if he would commit
to Alabama over Notre Dame.
Enter television. What network wanted to televise a blowout?
Enter college presidents and administrators. Those at elite schools noted
the number of talented young men sitting on their benches without a chance to
play. Presidents of lesser schools recognized they had little chance at success
and worked to level the playing field.
Enter Title IX and the NCAA. In order to balance the male and female
scholarship ratios, men’s football numbers and sometimes entire men’s sports
needed to be cut.
The net result of these factors has been drastic scholarship reductions and
the so called ‘Age of Parity’ in major college football.
However, I find myself asking, ‘Is there really parity in college football?
Has the landscape of the sport changed all that much since the reduction in
scholarships forced the playground bullies like Texas, USC, and Ohio State to
level the playing field? Is this truth or just an urban myth created by talking
heads?’
I went back and charted every national title, top five finish, top ten
finish, and top twenty finish in the history of the AP Poll, and what I found
might surprise you. I compared the unlimited scholarship era which lasted 36
years (1936-1972) to the era of scholarship reductions which has been in effect
for 33 years (1973-2006). The former is in black and the latter in blue.
|
Team |
National Titles |
Top 5 |
Top 10 |
Top 20 |
|
Notre Dame
|
46, 47, 49, 66
73, 77, 88 |
16
6 |
24
7 |
30
18 |
|
Alabama
|
61, 64, 65
78, 79, 92 |
9
9 |
17
15 |
22
22 |
|
Nebraska |
70, 71
94, 95 |
4
9 |
8
21 |
13
29 |
|
Oklahoma
|
50, 55, 56
74, 75, 85, 00 |
14
14 |
17
17 |
23
23 |
|
Ohio State
|
42, 54, 68
02 |
9
9 |
14
13 |
22
24 |
|
Penn State |
82, 86 |
4
10 |
7
15 |
16
23 |
|
Texas |
63, 69
05 |
12
6 |
14
9 |
20
18 |
|
Minnesota |
36, 40, 41, 60
|
4
|
7
|
11
2 |
|
Michigan |
48
97 |
7
9 |
18
19 |
25
29 |
|
Michigan State |
52
|
6
|
10
2 |
13
6 |
|
Tennessee |
51
98 |
8
5 |
14
9 |
23
22 |
|
Auburn |
57
|
4
3 |
6
9 |
13
18 |
|
Louisiana State University (LSU) |
58
|
4
2 |
13
5 |
17
12 |
|
Georgia |
81 |
4
5 |
7
10 |
11
19 |
|
University of Southern California (USC) |
62, 67, 72
03, 04 |
7
8 |
12
12 |
21
20 |
|
Army |
44, 45
|
6
|
8
|
13
|
|
Pittsburgh |
37
76 |
3
3 |
4
6 |
7
9 |
|
Miami, Fla. |
83, 87, 89, 91, 01 |
12 |
2
15 |
5
24 |
|
Florida |
96 |
8 |
13 |
8
17 |
|
FSU |
93, 99 |
11 |
16 |
2
23 |
|
Clemson |
81 |
1 |
1
5 |
7
12 |
|
Texas Christian (TCU) |
38
|
1
|
4
|
8
1 |
|
Texas A&M |
39 |
2 |
5
6 |
6
16 |
|
Maryland |
53
|
3
|
4
1 |
6
11 |
|
Syracuse |
59
|
1
1 |
3
2 |
11
6 |
|
Colorado |
90 |
1
4 |
2
6 |
3
12 |
|
Brigham Young (BYU) |
84 |
1 |
2 |
9 |
|
University of California Los
Angeles (UCLA) |
|
6
3 |
8
8 |
14
17 |
|
Navy |
|
7
|
8
|
11
|
|
Arkansas |
|
2
1 |
9
4 |
15
11 |
|
Illinois |
|
3
|
4
2 |
8
3 |
|
California |
|
4
|
4
2 |
8
3 |
|
Washington |
|
1
4 |
4
6 |
8
14 |
|
Stanford |
|
1
|
4
1 |
8
4 |
|
Duke |
|
2
|
5
|
16
|
|
Rice |
|
1
|
4
|
8
|
|
Missouri |
|
1
|
6
|
11
3 |
|
Iowa |
|
3
|
6
5 |
6
12 |
|
Tulane |
|
1
|
1
1 |
5
2 |
|
Tulsa |
|
1
|
1
|
8
|
|
Boston College |
|
1
1 |
2
1 |
3
5 |
|
Georgia Tech |
|
4
1 |
8
2 |
15
5 |
|
University of Mississippi (Ole
Miss) |
|
4
|
10
|
19
2 |
|
Southern Methodist University (SMU) |
|
1
2 |
3
3 |
6
5 |
|
Oregon State |
|
1 |
3
1 |
6
1 |
|
Oregon |
|
1 |
1
2 |
1
6 |
|
Wisconsin |
|
2
2 |
6
3 |
9
5 |
|
Purdue |
|
1
|
4
1 |
10
6 |
|
Indiana |
|
2
|
2
|
3
2 |
|
North Carolina |
|
1
|
3
4 |
7
9 |
|
Oklahoma State |
|
1
|
1
1 |
2
4 |
|
Utah |
|
1 |
1 |
1
1 |
|
Houston |
|
2 |
5 |
6
8 |
|
West Virginia |
|
2 |
1
3 |
4
7 |
|
Virginia Tech |
|
1 |
5 |
2
9 |
|
Arizona State |
|
3 |
1
5 |
6
10 |
|
Arizona |
|
1 |
2 |
1
5 |
|
Miami, Ohio |
|
|
2 |
1
4 |
|
Air Force |
|
|
1
1 |
2
3 |
|
Kansas |
|
|
1
1 |
3
2 |
|
Washington State |
|
|
4 |
4
6 |
|
Kentucky |
|
|
1
1 |
6
3 |
|
Wyoming |
|
|
1
|
4
|
|
Louisville |
|
|
1 |
1
4 |
|
Mississippi State |
|
|
1
|
5
4 |
|
Marshall |
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
Baylor |
|
|
1
|
6
5 |
|
East Carolina |
|
|
1 |
2 |
|
Northwestern |
|
|
1 |
2 |
|
Utah State |
|
|
1
|
1
|
|
Colorado State |
|
|
|
3 |
|
Southern Miss |
|
|
|
2 |
|
Texas Tech |
|
|
|
2
5 |
|
South Carolina |
|
|
|
1
4 |
|
Ohio University |
|
|
|
1
|
|
Toledo |
|
|
|
2
|
|
Boise State |
|
|
|
3 |
|
Wake Forest |
|
|
|
2
|
|
Iowa State |
|
|
|
1 |
|
San Diego State |
|
|
|
1 |
|
Virginia |
|
|
|
1
5 |
|
NC State |
|
|
|
5
6 |
|
Rutgers |
|
|
|
2
1 |
|
Memphis |
|
|
|
1
|
|
New Mexico |
|
|
|
1
|
|
New Mexico State |
|
|
|
1
|
|
Vanderbilt |
|
|
|
1
|
Quick Hitters
Duke, Georgia Tech, Rice, and Baylor have all apparently moved away from
excellence in football. This is probably due to the compromises made in
academia by most universities with so called ‘jock majors.’ Simply put, these
schools don’t funnel student-athletes into a Kinesiology department in order to
keep them eligible.
Clemson and SMU both fell precipitously after ugly NCAA scandals. Their
traditions were (by and large) simply a flash in the pan.
The one hit wonders with programs made by one coach/system are legion. BYU (Lavell
Edwards), Boise State (system), Ole Miss (Johnny Vaught), Oregon (Mike Bellotti),
FSU (Bobby Bowden), Florida (Steve Spurrier), Penn State (Joe Paterno), Utah
(Urban Meyer), Oregon State (Tommy Protho), Colorado State (Sonny Lubick),
Virginia Tech (Frank Beamer), Virginia (George Welsh), Kansas State (Bill
Snyder), Arizona (Dick Tomey), etc.
The WWII to Vietnam era was a golden one for service academies, but, other
than Air Force, they have not made much noise since. One could make the
argument NCAA scandals killed the drive for success at the United States
military academies. Also, with the others mentioned above, they cannot and will
not compromise entrance or eligibility requirements. They don’t even offer
Kinesiology or Basket Weaving 101 for the future leaders of the United States
Armed Services.
For those not historically aware, there should be a few surprises. Minnesota
and Duke were once numbered among the college football elite but have each
departed from that status for differing reasons. Wisconsin has had success
outside of Alvarez and Iowa had it outside of Hayden Fry/Kirk Ferentz. Once
upon a time Michigan State actually gave the Wolverines a run for their money.
Ohio State has been completely dominant within its state borders and among
major powers has enjoyed a monopoly of sorts that perhaps only Texas can
appreciate. Cincinnati has never been ranked in the polls and the University of
Miami has only been ranked 5 times to end the season. Toledo and Ohio
University have only been ranked 3 times combined while Bowling Green has never
finished above 23. Given the hotbed of talent in the state of Ohio, this should
come as a shock. Surely one of these schools could have put together a decent
football program in the last century…
The great ‘What If’s’ of the sport… What if Iowa State had managed to hang
onto Earle Bruce in 1978? What if Arkansas had managed to hire Bryant or
Kentucky or Texas A&M had kept him instead of allowing him to escape? What if
Dick Vermeil had remained at UCLA? What if Missouri had retained Dan Devine?
What if Duke had made an attempt to hire Joe Paterno in 1966 instead of Tom
Harp? What if Alabama native son Bobby Bowden had been hired by the Crimson
Tide when he applied for the job in 1986 instead of foolishly interviewing other
candidates? What if Arkansas had snagged alumni and former player Jimmie
Johnson instead of Ken Hatfield in 1984? What if Northwestern had kept Ara
Parseghian?
At first blush, note the similarities for schools like Ohio State, Michigan,
Alabama, USC, etc. Scholarship limits don’t appear to have slowed these
juggernauts down in the least. Notre Dame, LSU, and Tennessee have had more
coaching turnover leading to a slight dip in their numbers, but that will
eventually even out. If parity were all it is cracked up to be, this data
should look radically different…
The Florida Schools
The mountainous aberration on the map of college football is the sudden rise
of three powerhouses within the state of Florida. Florida State, Miami, and
Florida entered the 1980’s without a single championship between them but
proceeded to win eight from 1983 to 2001. With only 19 national titles
available during that span, they took home a whopping 42 percent of all trophies
handed out in division I-A football. The question is why? What happened all of
a sudden that so dramatically shifted the power base of the sport to one state?
Four factors combined to make this possible. The first item is the breaking
down of prejudicial barriers hampering the state and the entire south throughout
the bulk of its history. “Separate but equal” educational policies were
abolished in the late 1960’s and early 1970’s. It took federal mandates and
even federal troops in many areas, but for the first time, the Southern States
utilized their entire population instead of watching while talented young men
headed outside of the region to play in other conferences. Second is coaching.
When you can list off such luminaries as Dennis Erickson, Howard Schnellenberger,
Jimmy Johnson, Bobby Bowden, and Steve Spurrier as recent coaches – you can bet
there will be national championships involved. Those names are impressive, but
when you factor in former assistant coaches the list lengthens. Tommy
Tuberville, Bob Stoops, Mark Richt, Ed Orgeron, Chuck Amato, and Greg Schiano
all coached at one of these three powers before moving on to experience success
elsewhere. Third is a population shift. In 1960, the entire state had just 4.9
million residents (while Ohio had double that number with 9.8 million).
By 1980 Florida had grown to 9.7 million and by 2000 that number jumped to
15.9 million (while Ohio rose to only 11.5). In short, Florida hit a population
boom the likes of which is rarely seen by an entire region, let alone a single
state. With new residents came money, jobs, and children (read future
players). With money and jobs come better infrastructures which raise the
educational institutions, and improved educational institutions suddenly have
the necessary funds to hire top flight coaches and improve facilities. Better
coaches and better facilities allow universities to suddenly become a player on
the national scene because they can take advantage of the growing hotbed of
talent in their back yard.
Fourth, none of these schools with the exception of Florida had to play in a
difficult conference. This meant they could craft their own schedule in a way
that was extremely beneficial. Sure they offered to play anyone and everyone,
but they did not have to play the same teams year after year creating rivals who
slowly but surely lost their sense of awe. There were no titanic clashes late
in the season to eliminate them from title contention like a UCLA/USC or OSU/UM
or Auburn/Alabama. Expect the improved ACC and a more competitive SEC West to
take a toll (as it already has) on future titles for Florida programs.
Good Coaching
The most important factor in the rise of any program has been and continues
to be coaching. Miami of Ohio’s first appearance in the top 20 was with some
unknown named Ara Parseghian in 1955 (who followed Woody Hayes). Ohio State’s
first national title came with a young coach named Paul Brown and has since
landed titles under Woody Hayes and Jim Tressel (who already has 4 national
titles at the D-IAA level). Penn State was rarely a player in the top 10 and
lacked even a single national championship until an assistant named Joe Paterno
took over for Charles ‘Rip’ Engle in 1966. Shug Jordan’s hire signaled the rise
of Auburn while five of Alabama’s six titles in the past seventy years came
under the tenure of Paul “Bear” Bryant.
Pundits claim programs can win now because of parity, but the stark reality
is schools on the way up have great coaches. Kansas State had played in just
one bowl game in nearly a century until the arrival of Bill Snyder. He
transformed arguably the most woeful program in the history of college football
with a tremendous work ethic and eye for coaching talent. Nebraska hadn’t
claimed a Big Eight Conference Championship in 23 years when Bob Devaney took
over the reins; within a decade he led them to their first two AP national
titles. His trusted assistant, Tom Osborne, was promoted after Devaney’s
departure, and he won nine games or better for his entire 25 year career as a
head coach. Virginia Tech was a second rate football school without a single
bowl victory before Frank Beamer arrived in 1987. In 1999 the Hokies played for
the national title and flirted with another appearance in the championship
2005. Urban Meyer took the Bowling Green Falcons to within a hair’s breadth of
crashing the party for the BCS in 2002 while bursting open the doors with Utah
in 2004.
By way of contrast, it isn’t parity that crippled Minnesota, Michigan State,
Mississippi, and Texas Christian. These universities have fallen from the
football elite because their administrators have been unwise with their coaching
hires and have failed to support their football programs. Minnesota had four
national titles in a span of 15 years to start the AP poll, but their lack of an
on campus stadium and a string of poor coaches devastated their once proud
legacy. Only in recent years have they started to regain their status as a bowl
worthy team under Glen Mason. Yes, Mason may not be viewed as an elite coach,
but he did turn Kansas into a winner (no small feat). Michigan State went
163-78-7 from 1947 to 1972 but decades of questionable head coaches have taken
their toll, and just when it appeared former Ohio State assistant, Nick Saban,
was about to take them back to the promised land, Spartan administrators
foolishly allowed him to be hired away by LSU. Saban proceeded to win a
national championship and 48 games in five seasons with the Tigers.
A similar story has played out at the Ole Miss. Johnny Vaught had the Rebels
atop the SEC and the polls in the 1950’s and 60’s, but his retirement left them
in disarray. Five mediocre coaches followed until they stumbled upon Tommy
Tuberville in the wake of devastating NCAA sanctions. Tuberville proceeded to
breath life into a dying program, but the powers that be fiddled while Rome
burned when Auburn decided to lure him away. TCU was on the way up the ladder
with a young coach named Francis Schmidt, but they allowed Ohio State to snatch
him from under their noses and then kept Leo “Dutch” Meyer long after he had
ceased to produce victories. This led to a fifty year decline until Dennis
Franchione and Gary Patterson arrived on the scene.
Conclusion:
Aside from the emergence of the Florida schools, very little has changed.
Sure one or two teams here and there can have a nice season, and they might even
play for all the marbles once in a blue moon (such as BYU in 1984), but the odds
of them winning a national championship appear about the same.
You want proof? Look at the chart. Penn State, Clemson, Georgia, Colorado,
Nebraska, and BYU are the only new members added to the club of national title
winners since the early 1960’s. That’s right. In nearly five decades of
football, the champions have ultimately come from a pool of less than twenty
schools.
Of the six, there are fairly simple explanations as to why they three were
able to climb so high so quickly. Georgia and Clemson were both hammered by the
NCAA shortly after winning their titles. This begs the question of how Clemson
and Georgia won them in the first place, and it doesn’t take a person in MENSA
to connect the dots. BYU’s championship came over a sub-par Michigan squad (6-6
that year) in the Holiday Bowl by a score of 24-17. The Cougars faced only
three teams that finished with better than a .500 record that season and only
one team with more than seven wins (Air Force had 8). The fact of the matter is
had BYU been forced to face any team in the top five at the end of the season,
they would have been butchered like the Thanksgiving Turkey. A modern day BCS
championship berth would produce a laugher much like the Notre Dame – Oregon
State and Miami – Nebraska tilts.
The other three schools hired great coaches who stuck around long enough to
build a championship level program. The Cornhuskers were actually returning to
their championship roots when they brought on Devaney. The Cornhuskers ruled
the plains from 1894 until 1937 with 23 conference titles. Penn State struck it
rich with Paterno who opted to stay and make a career of it in State College,
Pennsylvania. This leaves only Colorado, where Bill McCartney reigned, and in
his absence they have struggled to stay ahead of the curve in wins and conduct.
In reality, parity is a lie. It is no better than an urban myth.
Oh, sure – the lower tier teams can occasionally jump up and bite the big
dogs. Oh, sure – it is easier to build a program than it once was. Oh, sure –
there are more opportunities to grab elite players since places like Ohio State,
USC, Michigan, Notre Dame, and Texas can’t hoard them all like a greedy pack
rat. Oh, sure – teams have a better shot at competing with the big boys
these days, but as for winning it all – their chances are little better
than they were in 1960.
There isn’t such thing as a level playing field, and I doubt there ever will
be.
The reason is the same as the reason why nothing has substantively changed.
The powerful alumni of programs like Oklahoma, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State,
etc. demand winners. In fact, if the team begins losing to such second tier
programs as Wisconsin or Iowa State or even Texas A&M – they will fire their
coach, build a new multimillion dollar facility, and work to re-establish their
dominance. They will spend whatever money is necessary to mobilize the
necessary resources to maintain their status as part of the elite.
Proof of such statements is fairly easy to obtain, especially when it comes
to coaches. Texas and Ohio State fired Fred Akers and Earle Bruce – who
combined to win almost 75 percent of their games…but no national championships.
Alabama and Notre Dame are the new ‘graveyards of coaches” with 13 head coaches
between them since the departure of Bryant and Dan Devine in the early 1980’s.
In fact, these two schools even have the dubious distinction of hiring and
firing a new coach before their programs ever played a game. Michigan, for all
of its stability, may soon fire Lloyd Carr if he cannot figure out how to defeat
Notre Dame or Ohio State and win his bowl game. Carr has a .750 winning
percentage, five Big Ten Championships, and the school’s only national title
since 1948. Nebraska booted Frank Solich to the curb in 2003 despite a .753
winning ratio, a conference championship, and a berth in the national title game
in 2001.
These schools win because they simply will not accept a losing program or
even a program that wins games. They don’t ask or hope for titles; they
demand championships, and this attracts coaches like moths to a flame
because they know 12-0 or 11-1 at Utah, Tulane, or TCU will maybe earn you a top
ten finish. The same record at Ohio State, Michigan, or Notre Dame will earn
you a spot in the national championship.
Remember, the next time you hear someone spouting off about parity consider
the old adage, “As much as things change, they stay the same.”